Application of Qualitative Business Forecasting Models for Business Development and Growth: the Perspective of Grains Dealers Association in Ogbete Main Market, Enugu

Abstract

This study discusses different qualitative business forecasting models and seeks to find out whether these models are adopted by the members of Grains Dealers Association, Ogbete Main Market, Enugu in forecasting their future sales or demands to enable them plan for future supplies; and which of the models are most commonly used for this purpose and the extent to which their businesses are aided for development and growth by forecast practices. The study adopted structured questionnaire and one-on-one interview to elicit information from the respondents made up of the 118 members of the Association in the market randomly sampled. The result of the study reveals that the forecasting method they practice deviates significantly from familiar qualitative forecasting models discuss in this work. The most common methods of forecasting adopted by these dealers is what they call Storage Forecasting model, whereby they practice unscientific predictions based on whether conditions and environmental indicators that certain grains may be scarce in the coming periods and as such are persuaded to purchase large quantities of such grains and store them waiting when the grains would be relatively scarce in the market so they could sale same at the current market price to make much gains. This new model of forecasting has made many of the grain dealers so wealthy. The study recommends inclusion of this new forecast phenomenon into the forecasting lexicon by the academic world. It is also recommended that the existing forecasting models, both the qualitative and quantitative forecasting models be learned and applied by business leaders, who hitherto are not familiar with those models as effective aid to business decisions for growth and development.