Sovereignty, Strategy, and Statecraft: A Clausewitzian Perspective on the Russia-Ukraine Crisis

Abstract

This study analyzes the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict through the lens of Carl von Clausewitz's theories on war, specifically his concepts of the nature of war, the "trinity" of war, and the idea of war as a continuation of politics by other means. Clausewitz’s theories underscore the inherent political dimensions of warfare, the dynamic interplay between military power and national policy, and the unpredictable nature of conflict. By applying a Clausewitzian framework, this paper examines how historical, cultural, and political factors influence the conflict and shape the decision-making processes of the involved actors. Utilizing a case study research design, primary data were gathered through focus group discussions with prominent historians, foreign policy experts, and international relations scholars. Additional data were sourced from scholarly books, journal articles, and reports by think tanks and international organizations, including the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the International Crisis Group, and NATO. Findings indicate that Russia’s invasion represents a continuation of political objectives driven by aspirations for control and influence over Ukraine, while Ukraine’s resistance embodies national will and the defense of sovereignty, highlighting the critical role of public opinion in conflict dynamics. Moreover, the study underscores the Clausewitzian view of diplomacy as an essential component of statecraft in wartime. The research concludes that sustained diplomatic engagement and open channels of communication, potentially facilitated by neutral third-party mediators, could play a pivotal role in de-escalating the conflict by focusing on shared interests and prospects for long-term stability.